Reflections


March 5, 2023

There will be more trading opportunities this week as deltas (and prices) spike on Tuesday, February 7.  Fed chair Jerome Powell will speak on Tuesday, delivering the semi-annual monetary policy report.  On Friday, there will be another jobs report.


March 4, 2023

The market was up 1.9% this week (1.6% on Friday) because 10-year Treasury note's yield dropped below 4%.  Yay!

February 26, 2023 

The market was hammered this week, with SPY dropping from 403 to 396.  This is on new that the Fed was still intent on increasing interest rates and that inflation increased from 5.3% in December to 5.4% in January.  This is not surprising considering that, on the street level, some consumer stables like soda and ketchup are finding the people largely brush off price hikes.

In other news, Google's stock continues to fall.  On February 2, Google opened at $106.  It closed on $89, a 16% drop, in less than 4 weeks.  This is in the wake of the budding ChatGPT rivalry and the intensifying antitrust actions (e.g., in ads and in maps) it is facing.

Overall, what an odd world.  When good things, like hiring picks up, the market falls.  When good retail numbers are reported, the market falls.  When bad retail numbers occur, the market also falls.  It is hard to be a fundamentals-based investor in this environment.

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